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Minggu, 27 Februari 2011

I Watched This Game: Canucks vs Bruins, February 26, 2011

Canucks 1 - 3 Bruins


Last night's tough loss to the Boston Bruins keeps the Canucks mired in their pattern of alternating wins and losses, a pattern that's now persisted for 10 games. That said, you have to think last night's loss was different--that is was the toughest of the most recent five. Tied at one going into the third period, and poised to do what they do best, which is take over in the third period, the Canucks were instead shocked by a Bruins team that collapsed back in a tie game to block shots and clog up passing lanes. Then, they capitalized on a missed call and a missed defensive assignment to score the game-winner, and wound up skating away from the final frame with two goals on four shots. It had to be sort of infuriating--sort of really infuriating--and I should know, because I felt a similar fury as I watched this game:

  • The Boston Bruins continued the trend of Eastern Conference teams getting past the Canucks by blocking every possible shot. Boston blocked 23 shots (Johnny Boychuk and Adam McQuaid having 10 between them). The Canadiens and the Rangers utilized this same game plan to success, and it would appear that teams have a book on the Canucks. Before you start to panic, however, realize that it's no foolproof plan and it can only be exacted if you're not trailing. Had the Canucks been able to hold a lead against these three clubs, things would have opened up. That said, we are beginning to see how teams adjust and meticulously prepare for the best team in the NHL. The Canucks rely on a lot of down-low passing, so if you collapse around the net, you can cover them and get in passing lanes while remaining in position to block point shots. Unsurprisingly, ten of Vancouver's blocked attempts came off the sticks of their top four defensemen.
  • One way to combat a goal crease collapse is to send a big forward into the opponents' defensive box to wreak havoc. However, among the top six forwards, only Ryan Kesler has the size for this, especially when Zdeno Chara can so ably move a smaller body elsewhere. Worse, as the center, Kesler is supposed to be the first forward back, so he really can't afford to get caught down low (at even strength, anyway). Tanner Glass's promotion to the second line was Vigneault's attempt to combat the net presence deficiency in his top six.
  • It was also an attempt to get through to Mason Raymond, for whom the problems continue to compound. He's typically a reliable defensive player, even during scoring slumps, but even that aspect of his game is beginning to drift away. In the last few games, we've seen plays die on his stick, then come back the other way without him, and end up in the net. Raymond again played a subpar offensive game last night, but he earned a third period demotion to the fourth line with some brutal defensive coverage on Nathan Horton's second period goal. Not only does he let Horton get position in front, Raymond takes his stick out of the play and winds up left with no other recourse but a series of ineffective nudges. If his stick's on the ice, maybe he jams Horton up or knocks the puck away. Instead, one of the spindliest Canucks tosses his stick over his back like a hobo's bindle and tries to outmuscle a power forward. Unwise. Raymond may not have earned himself a trade out of town last night but, at the very least, he's earned himself a couple restless nights before the deadline.
  • In the past, PITB had an oft-used No Third Line For Glass hashtag, which we used whenever Tanner Glass got top nine icetime. We've since semi-retired this hashtag (because we love Tanner Glass now), although AV appears to have finally listened, as he bypassed the third line entirely and bumped Tanner to the second. Okay, in truth, this had more to do with keeping the third line intact. They've combined for 7 goals in the last 7 games, including this game's lone Canuck tally. That one came off the stick of Manny "Alternate Captain Mal" Malhotra, who becomes the first Canuck to beat Tim Thomas. Thomas can take solace, however, in knowing that no caucasian Canuck has ever beaten him. Try to remember that, Canucks. Next time the Bruins come to town, we should dress Darren Archibald to take advantage of Thomas's susceptibility to shots by ethnic minorities.
  • Brad Marchand's got a real Inspector Gadget look to him, doesn't he? With the long face and nose, I half-expected him to skate on a line with Penny and Brain. He's a bit of a bumbler, too. Twice last night he activated Go-Go-Gadget-Take-Stupid-Penalty.
  • Rough night for Sami Salo, who was on the ice for all three Boston goals. Silver lining: that means he stayed healthy for the whole game. Offensively, I enjoyed his eagerness to blast the puck whenever possible. It's nice to have that weapon back. Salo had a game-high 5 shots, and although two were blocked, none missed the net. Can you believe this guy's one half of our bottom pairing?
  • People will claim that the Canucks were outmuscled, but that's not actually true. The Canucks outhit Boston 32 to 22, led by 4 hits by Jannik Hansen, 6 by Tanner Glass, and a whopping seven by Raffi Torres, including this fabulous one on Tomas Kaberle, which might have been Raffi's best hit of the season. Human bowling ball indeed.
  • Milan Lucic was the star of the evening, scoring the game-winner and notching a helper on Boston's other two goals. That said, can we please put the shoulda drafted Lucic talk to rest? It would have been nice to have a Vancouver-born player in a Canucks uniform, but this isn't another Cam Neely fiasco. He was never going to be a Canuck. He was drafted 50th overall, and scouts at the time thought even that was early. Even if the Canucks hadn't traded away their second-rounder, they likely wouldn't have used it on him. It seems foolish now, but I'm a little sick of people forgetting how hindsight works.
  • Ryan Kesler's in a bit of a scoring slump, and I'm surprised it didn't happen sooner. Who else do you have to worry about when he's on the ice?
  • Speaking of Kesler, he took 25 faceoffs last night. The rest of the team, combined, took 29. It was like he and Vigneault were playing a game of Uno, and Vigneault was out to get him. Draw four, Kes. Ha ha, draw four again.
  • I liked Alex Burrows' battle with Milan Lucic. During one faceoff in particular, Lucic simply encroached on Burr's space and made himself unmovable, but what Burr lacks in brute strength, he makes up for in obnoxiousness, so he just chopped Lucic's stick out of his hands and skated away. Good on you, Burr, you greasy little snot.
  • The Canucks' power play looked disorganized and tentative, and it may have cost the the game. Tentative is good for road trip itineraries; it's bad for special teams.
  • And finally, Cody Hodgson had a strong game, likely motivated by this being the last of his three-game tryout (of sorts), but he needs to get his shot off a little quicker. His patience is impressive, sure, but more impressive if when one's shot reaches the goaltender. Cody had 1 shot on goal, but he had three more blocked because he held onto it too long. I have a feeling the knock on Hodgson will always be a lack of urgency, but unlike the Sedins, he doesn't have an Art Ross trophy to fall back on when people claim he's not quick enough to fire. He should spend a weekend with Donald Trump.

Jumat, 04 Februari 2011

Manny Malhotra is an Enabler

Pictured: Manny Malhotra, ultimate team player, enabling Ryan Kesler to complete a fist-bump.

It wasn't that long ago that Manny Malhotra was receiving premature buzz for the Selke Award. Now, mired in a 16-game pointless drought, questions are being raised about his role as the third-line center, with some suggesting that Hodgson might supplant him before the season is done. I heard from some quarters that Hodgson's line with Tanner Glass and Jeff Tambellini may as well have been the third-line against the Coyotes, as they often seemed more effective on the ice than the trio of Malhotra, Torres, and Hansen. And tonight on the Team 1040, one of the topics of conversation was whether Malhotra is actually worth his pricey 2.5 million dollar contract.

Yes. The answer is yes, he is.

Don't get me wrong. His point-scoring drought is regrettable and it would be nice if he and Torres broke out of their slumps to provide some tertiary scoring, but Malhotra's value isn't found in directly providing scoring. Instead, Malhotra is an enabler. He enables the scoring in others, particularly in Ryan Kesler and the Sedins.

Unlike a playmaker, who enables scoring in linemates, Malhotra enables the scoring of those on other lines.

The addition of Malhotra has had a trickle up effect, as he takes on the checking role previously held by Kesler, freeing Kesler up to greater offensive opportunities, which he has capitalized on with aplomb. Meanwhile, despite Kesler's increased offensivity, Henrik Sedin and his line have been able to continue in their primarily offensive role thanks to Malhotra's presence in the lineup.

I'm going to take a look at how this plays out using two different statistics from Behind The Net: Corsi Relative Quality of Competition (Corsi Rel QoC) and Offensive Zone Start Percentage (Ozone%) and how Malhotra compares to the two centres above him, Kesler and Sedin. I will then be following it up with a brief discussion of faceoffs. I will be limiting each to players who have played at least 20 games.

As I pointed out in a footnote in a recent post, Manny Malhotra has the lowest Ozone% on the Canucks. He starts in the offensive zone a miniscule 27.7% of the time. He is trusted to take the vast majority of the Canucks' defensive zone faceoffs, and for good reason: he's currently second in the NHL in faceoff percentage, right behind Washington's David Steckel, who has taken 370 fewer faceoffs. In fact, Malhotra has won the most faceoffs in the NHL, with 591 victories. NHL.com doesn't distinguish between defensive and offensive zone faceoffs, which is unfortunate, but from observation I can tell you that the majority of those wins were in the defensive zone.

To illustrate the significance of this, note that Malhotra has the second lowest Ozone% in the entire NHL. Malhotra is on pace to take 1495 faceoffs this season. Of those, 1081 will be in the defensive zone. That averages out to around 13 defensive zone faceoffs per game, compared to 5 offensive zone faceoffs. What's especially interesting is that this is a massive drop in offensive zone starts for Malhotra. In San Jose last season, he started in the offensive zone 45.3% of the time. In Columbus the year before, it was 43.4%.

The biggest impact of this stat has been on Henrik Sedin. In 2008-09, Sedin started in the offensive zone 49.9% of the time. This saw a modest bump to 57.7% in 2009-10. This season, with the addition of Malhotra, Sedin is starting in the offensive zone a whopping 70.1%, good for third in the NHL behind Cam Janssen and--surprise!--Daniel Sedin. In the article on Alex Edler, I referred to this kind of discrepancy in zone starts as sheltering Edler, but it might be more accurate to refer to it as putting your best offensive players in the best position to score. Kesler has also seen a modest bump in Ozone%, but it's about as modest as Bristol Palin's outfits and, like Bristol Palin, not really worth mentioning.

When it comes to Corsi Rel QoC, however, the addition of Malhotra has made a massive difference for Kesler. First, a quick definition of terms: Corsi is a measurement of total shots attempted both for and against. Essentially, add up all the goals, shots, blocked shots, and missed shots that your team has taken while you are on the ice and subtract all the goals, shots, blocked shots, and missed shots that the opposition has taken while you are on the ice. It's a measure of puck possession that strongly correlates to scoring chances and, therefore, goals. Relative Corsi is a method of normalizing a Corsi rating by comparing a player's Corsi rating with the team's Corsi rating when he is off the ice. It's considered to more accurately measures an individual players contribution to puck possession. Finally, Corsi Rel QoC is a measurement of the quality of competition a player faces based on the Relative Corsi of his opponents. It's more accurate than the base Quality of Competition stat, which uses +/-. Does that make sense? Good. Moving on.

In 2008-09, Kesler led the team in Corsi Rel QoC, with a rating of 1.265, just ahead of Willie Mitchell. This was good for 13th in the NHL; night in and night out, Kesler faced the best players the opposition had to offer and earned his first Selke nomination. Last season, Kesler was second on the Canucks, just behind Willie Mitchell. Kesler continued to face tough competition, increased his offensive production, and was once again nominated for the Selke. This year, however, Malhotra is taking the heat off Kesler, as Malhotra is third in Corsi Rel QoC on the Canucks, first among forwards. Meanwhile, Kesler is facing the 8th toughest competition, freeing him from his checking duties. The result: Kesler has embraced the offensive side of his game: he has already bested his career high in goals, is on pace for 47 goals and 32 assists, and is receiving hype not for the Selke, but the Hart. With Malhotra bearing the brunt of the opposition's offensive pressure, Kesler has gone from first amongst Canucks forwards in Corsi Rel QoC to sixth.

Intriguingly, the total number of faceoffs taken has been fairly evenly split between Malhotra, Kesler, and Sedin. The three centres are on pace for 1495, 1471, and 1437 faceoffs respectively. The total difference from top to bottom is less than one faceoff per game. Last season, Henrik took 1527 faceoffs to Kesler's 1401. Next closest was Kyle Wellwood with 725. The difference was more pronounced in 2008-09 as Henrik took 1364 faceoffs to Kesler's 976, with Wellwood lagging behind at 621. To be fair, Kesler played on Mats Sundin's wing for the latter part of that year. Oddly enough, despite being one of the best faceoff men in the league last season at 62.5%, Malhotra took only 664 draws for the Sharks. It could be argued that the Sharks underutilized him, though to be fair, Scott Nichol is not too shabby at faceoffs.

In any case, the number of faceoffs that Malhotra takes for the Canucks dwarfs Kyle Wellwood's contributions the last couple of seasons. As good as Wellwood was on the draws, Malhotra is even better and is clearly more trusted by the coaching staff. This balance in faceoffs taken spreads the responsibility around, with Malhotra taking the majority of defensive zone faceoffs, Henrik taking the majority of offensive zone faceoffs, and Kesler splitting between the two fairly evenly. And with Malhotra taking over the role of checking line center, facing the toughest competition the other team has to offer, Kesler has been free to focus on his goalscoring.

It's also noteworthy that even with his 16-game drought, Malhotra is still on pace for 27 points this year, right on par with his post-lockout career totals. He has been carrying the puck to the net with some authority recently and has come achingly close on numerous scoring chances to end his slump. But the Canucks are not dependent on him doing so: he just needs to continue lightening the load of his teammates on the top-two lines, enabling them to continue their potentially award-winning seasons.

Selasa, 11 Januari 2011

Kesler and Sedins are All-Stars

The NHL has released the complete All-Star roster for the 2011 All-Star Game and, in a move that I'm sure is shocking to everyone, they picked the right players from the Vancouver Canucks. Both of the Sedins will play, after just Henrik was picked back in 2008. Joining Daniel and Henrik will be Ryan Kesler, whose career-year pace has not gone unnoticed. I'm very excited to see Kesler take the All-Star Game very, very seriously.

While arguments could be made for both Roberto Luongo and Alexander Edler, it's difficult to argue with the selections made. For the most part, the NHL seems to have gotten it right. It's a little baffling that Henrik Zetterberg is absent and that only one goalie was selected from the Western Conference, but with the necessity of fitting in at least one player from every team, it's understandable to see one or two notable absences. It happens every year. Having to squeeze in players from the cellar-dwelling Oilers, Leafs, Islanders, Senators, Panthers and Devils means some very good players from top teams will be absent. Except, of course, that the Islanders and Panthers, as well as the Sabres and Coyotes, will only have rookies and sophomores participating in the All-Star festivities and no players in the actual game.

I, for one, am just glad they selected Ryan Kesler. The Sedins were obvious choices and it would have been very easy for them to select the Sedins and move on from the Canucks, leaving room for another forward. I'm thankful they didn't, as Kesler has been one of the best players in the NHL over the first half of the season and has the potential to reach elite status if he can improve his numbers over the second half.

Some might argue that with his offensive outburst this season combined with his usual strong defensive play, he's already there. I hate to say it, but I disagree. With Manny Malhotra stepping in for the majority of the defensive zone faceoffs and the toughest competition, Ryan Kesler is being asked to do a lot less defensively, which has majorly contributed to his offensive production this year. Many were surprised when NHL.com suggested that Malhotra, not Kesler, was a frontrunner for the Selke, but they're absolutely right, or at least should be. The Selke will likely come down to a reputation-based award once again, instead of actually rewarding the best defensive forward from the 2010-11 season, in which case it may actually go to Kesler (which I wouldn't cry about), but Manny Malhotra should be in consideration.

In any case, Kesler and the Sedins are All-Stars. And you know what that means...McDonald's hockey cards! Oh wait, nevermind. McDonalds apparently doesn't do hockey cards anymore, which is the saddest thing I've heard today.

With the assumption that Kesler will take part in the fastest skater competition, what parts of the skills competition would you like to see the Sedins participate in?

Minggu, 26 Desember 2010

I Watched This Game: Canucks vs. Oilers, December 26, 2010

Canucks 3 - 2 Oilers


A couple days ago on Puck Daddy, Justine Bourne wrote about the dreaded post-Christmas game, and suggested that hockey fans "be sure to set [the] DVR for 'anything but NHL hockey' on Dec. 26 and 27" as players work off their Christmas hams and turkeys with lethargic play. Instead, both the Canucks and Oilers came out flying in a fairly wide-open hockey game. The Canucks carried the bulk of the play, out-shooting the Oilers 33-21, but Khabibulin put up a wall, the Oilers were opportunistic with their chances, and the Canucks had to come from behind to win this one.

I wasn't worried for an instant: as everyone knows, the two-goal lead is the worst lead in hockey. As soon as the Oilers went up 2-0, I knew the Canucks had this game in the bag. Despite such foreknowledge, I watched this entire game:

  • Last Boxing Day, Jeff Tambellini sat in the press box at Madison Square Garden, a healthy scratch while his New York Islanders eked out an overtime victory against the Rangers. Three nights later, he would get 12:27 of icetime in his first game in three weeks before heading right back in the press box for the next game. In the new year, he would play one game in January, two more in February, and finish the season in and out of the press box, without a goal since November 23rd in Toronto. That offseason, the worst team in the NHL let him walk without much consideration, and they're probably the only ones who are even remotely sore about it. Tamby got picked up by his hometown team, and his luck changed dramatically. Tonight, he scored a vital goal on his patented high wrister, had another waved off, and buzzed around the offensive and defensive zones making big plays (including a huge backcheck on a 2-on-1). Give the kid credit for an incredible turnaround.
  • The Biggest Idiot Ever award goes to the two fans sitting behind the Oilers' net in the 1st and 3rd period who couldn't seem to refrain from banging their hands on the glass ALL. NIGHT. LONG. Pro Tip: when you do that, your team does not get a brief turbo boost.
  • The First Law of Sedinery: if a game is tied late in the third period, and the Sedins have not yet factored into a goal, they'll soon factor into the game-winner. Both Sedins had strong games, creating multiple scoring chances, including a perfect setup for Andrew Alberts in the slot. Unfortunately, it was a perfect setup for Andrew Alberts in the slot.
  • The fourth line had only one shift after the complete collapse that led to the Oilers' first goal, leaving both Aaron Volpatti and Alexandre Bolduc with under 5 minutes in total time-on-ice. The only reason Tanner Glass had more is because he was used once in a penalty killing role in the third period. Most, if not all, of the blame has to be given to Volpatti, who completely mishandled a pass from Glass, giving it away to O'Marra at the blueline, then failing to follow O'Marra to the net to prevent him from putting the puck in the open net. We're only a few games removed from Volpatti scoring his first NHL goal and the fourth line being praised for finally existing, but that is the kind of play that could see Volpatti on a plane to Manitoba.
  • Cory Schneider only made 19 saves tonight, but made several tough stops off of odd-man rushes. It's dangerous to give a young, hungry team like the Oilers so many odd-man rushes. It's also dangerous to give slightly older, well-fed players like Ryan Whitney an odd-man rush: Schneider had less of a chance on his goal than Brian Herzlinger with Drew Barrymore.
  • Manny Malhotra had his usual strong defensive game, going an astonishing 83% in the faceoff circle and logging almost 2 minutes of time on the penalty kill, but he also showed some offensive flourish, with 3 shots and an assist. His most impressive moment came towards the end of the second period, just before Tambellini scored, as he split the defense and forced Khabibulin to make a solid save. He just needs a browncoat, pistol, and a more accurate shot to upgrade from Alternate Captain Mal to Captain Mal.
  • With an assist on Tambellini's goal, Kesler extended his point streak to 7 games. He has 11 points in that span. Only 17 more games and 35 more points to catch Crosby!
  • That said, did Kesler forget how to turn right on the Tambellini goal? After cutting across the blue line to drop the puck, he does a full spin to get back into position for a return feed. A simple right turn would have sufficed. Does he think he's Derek Zoolander? Perhaps.
  • Speaking of Kesler, both he and Henrik were terrible on faceoffs tonight at 33% and 32% respectively. Against a better team, that could have been disastrous. Meanwhile, Alexandre Bolduc was 100% on draws; too bad he only took 3 of them. Still, Ducer (pronounced "dük-er" and yes, that's apparently what his teammates call him) is a solid 55.9% for the season.
  • Remember when it was safe to go to the outside on a Canucks defenseman? Remember that? It's no longer the case. I am happy about that.
  • I'm often hard on Raffi Torres for his poor puck decisions and bizarre pass attempts, but his assist on Samuelsson's goal was pretty fantastic. Also pretty fantastic? Dr. Doom riding a unicorn. Missing from that replay is Keith Ballard's excellent work at gaining the blue line and going hard to the net. After getting the puck to the corner, he rotates back to the point, where Mikael Samuelsson was covering him. Samuelsson stealthily glides into the slot and no one thinks to pick him up because of the rotation between he and Ballard. Shorty even yells "There's Samuelsson!" as if he had no idea where he was either. He was probably hiding under an invisibility cloak.
  • Speaking of Ballard, it's tempting to yet again question AV's decisions with time-on-ice as Ballard yet again played under 14 minutes. But when Edler, Ehrhoff, Hamhuis, and Bieksa are playing so well ahead of him and eating up big minutes...well, there's only so much time to go around. Bieksa-haters may want to argue that Ballard should get his minutes; this wasn't the game to make that argument.
  • Bieksa's game-winning goal, seen above, comes unsurprisingly off some fantastic work below the goal-line by Henrik Sedin. Despite being "hauled down" by Taylor Hall, he manages to hook the puck behind the net to Alex Burrows from his back. Burrows smartly waits for Daniel to crash the net before feeding the puck to Bieksa at the point. Bieksa does not have the heavy shot of Edler or Ehrhoff, but he consistently gets his shots on net and manages to thread the needle through the haystack of bodies in front of Khabibulin. It's a perfect shot: about a foot and a half above the ice, just off the inside post.